Deaths potentially averted by small changes in physical activity and sedentary time: an individual participant data meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

We aimed to estimate the proportion of deaths preventable by 5-min and 10-min incremental increases in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) and 30-min and 60-min reductions in daily sedentary time.

我们旨在估算通过每天增加5分钟和10分钟中等到高强度体力活动（MVPA）以及减少30分钟和60分钟每日久坐时间，可以预防的死亡比例。

Methods

We did an individual participant data meta-analysisof prospective cohort studies.

我们进行了前瞻性队列研究的个体参与者数据荟萃分析。

We included studies with device-measured physical activity and sedentary time.

我们纳入了使用设备测量的体力活动和久坐时间的研究。

We estimated the proportion of deaths prevented (potential impact fractions; PIFs) by changes in (1) the approximately 20% least active participants (high-risk approach) and (2) all participants except the approximately 20% most active (population-based approach).

我们估计了通过改变(1)大约20%活动量最少的参与者（高风险方法）和(2)除大约20%活动量最多的参与者外的所有参与者（基于人群的方法）所预防的死亡比例（潜在影响分数；PIFs）。

We calculated PIFs from adjusted hazard ratios estimated for 5-min and 10-min increases in MVPA and 30-min and 60-min reductions in sedentary time from observed levels across the activity distribution.

我们计算了通过增加5分钟和10分钟的中等至剧烈强度体力活动（MVPA）以及减少30分钟和60分钟的久坐时间，从观察到的活动分布水平调整后的风险比（hazard ratios）估算出的PIFs。

Results

We included seven cohorts from Norway, Sweden, and the USA (n=40 327; 4895 deaths).

我们纳入了来自挪威、瑞典和美国的七个队列(n=40 327; 4895例死亡)。

Data from the UK Biobank (n=94 719; 3487 deaths) were analysed separately.

来自英国生物银行的数据(n=94 719; 3487例死亡)被单独分析。

A 5-min/day increase in MVPA in the least active participants might prevent 6·0% (95% CI 4·3-7·4) of all deaths.

在活动量最少的参与者中，每天增加5分钟的中高强度身体活动（MVPA）可能预防6.0%（95%置信区间4.3-7.4）的所有死亡。

A similar increase in MVPA in all participants except the most active might prevent 10·0% (6·3-13·4) of all deaths.

在所有参与者中，除了最活跃的参与者外，类似的MVPA增加可能预防10.0%（95%置信区间6.3-13.4）的所有死亡。

Reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day might prevent 3·0% (2·0-4·1) of all deaths in the high-risk approach and 7·3% (4·8-9·6) in the population-based approach.

每天减少30分钟久坐时间，可能在高风险方法中预防3.0%（2.0-4.1）的所有死亡，在基于人群的方法中预防7.3%（4.8-9.6）的死亡。

Results from the UK Biobank were of a smaller magnitude but still substantial-eg, reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day in all except the most active participants was associated with preventing 4·5% (2·8-6·1) of total deaths.

来自英国生物银行的结果虽然规模较小，但仍然相当显著-例如，除了最活跃的参与者外，每天减少30分钟久坐时间与预防4.5%（2.8-6.1）的总死亡率相关。

interpretation

Small and realistic increases in MVPA of 5 min/day might prevent up to 6% of all deaths in a high-risk approach and 10% of all deaths in population-based approach.

在高风险方法中，每天增加5分钟的中等至剧烈体力活动（MVPA）可能预防高达6%的所有死亡，在基于人群的方法中可能预防高达10%的所有死亡。

Reducing sedentary time by 30 min/day might prevent a smaller, but still meaningful, proportion of deaths in the two risk scenarios.

在两种风险情景中，每天减少30分钟的久坐时间可能预防的死亡比例较小，但仍然具有意义。

funding

None.

无。